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Forecasters predict new dry to the US in 2013

The drought caused a severe drop in soybean crops and US corn in 2012 may persist in 2013, according to the International Meteorological Offices.

Forecasters predict new dry to the US in 2013

The drought and its losses led grain prices to register records in the international market and the persistence of such weather conditions can threaten the recovery in production this year. Currently, the United States is the world's largest corn producer and the second largest soybean.

"Unless there is an unexpected change in weather conditions to very humid days, the drought will, of course, a hallmark of the planting season, at least in the spring. In the 30s, there was a period of four or five years that drought was a constant thing, "said Bryce Anderson, DTN agrometeorologista the institute.

The drought last year, the worst since 1930, made the soybean and corn reached the highest values ??of all time, increasing significantly the feeding costs and encouraging the South American producers to increase their production.

The US corn production fell to 272.4 million tonnes in the 2012/13 season, and the lowest since the 2006/2007 cycle, according to the USDA (US Department of Agriculture). Since soybean crop was 4% lower, reaching 80.9 million tons. Global corn stocks were reduced to 117.6 million tons.

On the last day December 11, Goldman Sachs issued a statement saying there is a great risk that the US harvest in 2013 may be, again, less than expected. According to the Drought Monitor, the US government mechanism, on January 1, parts of Iowa, state that produces nearly twice as an entire corn production in Argentina or the total soybean production in China still suffered with extreme drought conditions.

For senior meteorologist at British Weather Services, yet there is nothing in terms of climate change indicates that the drought in the US will be short-lived.

Soil Moisture - The drought index that measures rainfall and temperatures as a way to measure the extent of the drought conditions, known as Palmer index, fell to -4 in July. According to Bryce Anderson, the record shows that in the years when the indicator reached that level, soil moisture took, on average, about 18 to 51 months to recover.

In Iowa, the largest producing state of soybean and corn in the country, 85% of the moisture of the upper soil were classified as low or very low, according to Anderson. The agrometeorolgista monitors the development and growth conditions using satellite images. On January 5, some parts of the American Midwest, the largest producer of soybeans region and country corn, and many areas of the plains region still recorded the Palmer index of -4, which indicates extreme drought.

Warmest year - 2012 was the warmest year in the United States, according to records from 1895 to the 48 states where 62% of the territory were punished by severe drought. According to the country's government climatologists said in December, these conditions may continue to be seen. Information provided by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States).

Wheat - The drought may also compromise the winter wheat in the country. According to USDA information, the harvest is registering the worst conditions since 1985. According Abdolreza Abbassian, ecnonomista FAO - UN arm for food and agriculture - investors may not be realizing the problems with the global supply of wheat. global grain stocks can reach the lowest level in four years.

Prices - Also according to the statement released by Goldman Sachs, corn prices in Chicago should recover and achieve in six months, the level of $ 8.25 per bushel. Soybeans, in turn, should reach $ 15.50. Have a Bloomberg survey indicated that the average prices projected for 2013 is US $ 16.35 for soybeans and also $ 8.25 for corn.

Source: Source: Agricultural News

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